Crude At 2 1/2 Year High On Dollar Weakness, last I checked it was at $126 a barrel. I hate to say I said this would happen.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIhBw3Sw1Xw
What does it all mean - My Futurist predictions at work.
1. So its a good time to have electric scooters because of investor interest. So anyone with the next Vextrix 2.0 should get a lot of attention.
2. Market demand for scooters even gasoline ones is about to skyrocket again. Expect delays at the dealer, order taking, and prices to go up in Taiwan, Korea, and forget Japan thanks to earthquakes and radiation I don't see them exporting any scooters anytime soon.
3. American dealers that have been surviving the last two years are about to be full of cash again. Please don't buy that extra house you don't need or expand to five locations overnight. Buy accessories, and invest in service not more bikes.
4. Distributors and OEMs that were about to close are going to find life since there will be more demand. Now is the time to bring back Italian manufacturing at idle scooter plans in Bologna like Malaguti.
5. America will be ripe for the scooter dealers who focus on parts and service this summer.
6. Because the dollar is worth less, the price of scooters from Asia is going to go up. Forget the days of the $699 scooter, its now the $1299 scooter.
7. Light bikes and EV Bikes will finally see some consumer demand. Up until now its all been industry push, but with $5 gas you will see some Americans say "hey I should drive a light cycle from Tron," but since those aren't for sale let me find an EV Scooter. - One can only dream right?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3ODe9mqoDE
So the real question is will gas continue to go up before the elections? How quickly will it get to $5 a gallon in the USA?
Well its going to happen. My take is soon because we are all distracted by bigger problems.
My first contention is that if we keep bombing everyone in the Middle East back into the stone-age its bound to go up. No doubt about it. Plus Chavez in Venezuela, the Mula Mulas in Iran and everyone else will use our Libya distraction to start more trouble. Everyone seems to be ignoring all the problems in Israel, but last I checked markets are ignoring that.
World War III doesn't just magically happen, there is no fantastic assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 2011. Thanks to Twitter, Facebook, and all forms of social media is happens in real time and its over by the time you want to do something about it.
1. We start by promoting revolts.
2. Then we protest against the war all over the world and just as quickly everyone is over it.
3. We forget we invaded Iraq and repeat process and invade let's say Libya.
4. We justify it somehow and next thing you know we have four or five wars going on.
5. We forget the past.
Take a train ride in Italy and you will see "PACE / PEACE" signs in hippie sixties colors all over the place leftovers from the protests against Bush a few years ago, but everyone seems to have moved onto the next scandal like Silvios "Bunga Bunga" parties. The economy is in ruins and he's giving speeches about getting rid of the illegal immigrants, nominating islands for the noble peace price, and getting rid of the flotilla of Africans arriving on the shores. Yet, everyone is too distracted to care except very soon they will all need to be fixing their Italjets, Betas, Benellis, Malaguti scooters and parts wont be available for the older Italian production anymore.
6. Because we rely on Asia for all our scooters prices are bound to go up.
Why? Because under Silvio's watch the last ten years all these companies stopped making scooters in Italy. See previous blog entry to see how Malaguti can be saved.
Yes, Mr. Berlosconni is one of the reasons that Italian Motorcycle Production is in shambles.
Korean scooters are basically no longer in the US market except for Hyosung and they are pretty expensive.
We rely on Taiwan and China for our quality scooters and those prices are bound to go up as internal demand in Asia rises quicker than America. As the dollar is worth less these bikes are bound to go up in prices and as gas prices go up it becomes a cycle.
Go back a few steps and repeat the process.
$5 gas is coming, I can feel it.
End of Line
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